A strong El Nino is developing in the Pacific and could persist into 2027, raising concerns about its impact on India’s monsoon and global weather patterns, climate scientists say.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has flagged strengthening El Nino conditions, with sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific running well above average. Forecasters expect the event to rank among the stronger episodes of recent decades.

El Nino typically suppresses rainfall over India by shifting atmospheric circulation, and strong events have historically been linked to monsoon deficits. The 2027 southwest monsoon would fall squarely within the event’s expected influence window, putting agriculture and water resources at risk.

Scientists caution that the exact impact will depend on how the event evolves through the winter and spring. Other climate drivers, including Indian Ocean temperatures, will also shape the outcome.

The India Meteorological Department will issue its first long-range monsoon forecast in April 2027. Policymakers are already watching reservoir levels and rabi crop prospects, as a weak monsoon would add to inflationary pressures on food prices.