Brazil votes on October 4 in a presidential election pitting leftist incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva against far-right senator Flavio Bolsonaro. Final polls show Lula with a narrow lead.

A Datafolha poll released October 1 puts Lula at 48 percent and Bolsonaro at 45 percent in a simulated runoff. The gap is within the two-point margin of error. In the first round, Lula leads with 42 percent against Bolsonaro’s 38 percent.

If no candidate wins more than half the valid votes on Sunday, the top two will face a runoff on October 25. Datafolha surveyed 2,506 people between September 29 and October 1.

A Quaest poll shows a sharp regional split. Lula takes 56 percent in the Northeast. Bolsonaro leads in the South with 41 percent against Lula’s 27 percent. Bolsonaro is the son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence. He has said he would pardon his father if elected.