The rupee has slipped past 96 to the dollar, near record lows. A Reuters poll sees it at 96.50 by March and a record 97.50 within a year. Here is what drives it and what it means.

First, US Treasury yields near 5.25 per cent pull global money into safe American assets. Foreign investors have sold nearly $29 billion of Indian shares this year, the poll found.

Second, high oil prices hurt India, which imports most of its crude. A weaker rupee makes fuel, electronics and foreign travel costlier.

Third, the Reserve Bank of India keeps intervening to slow the fall. But strategists say the rupee has weakened about 1 per cent a month in 2026. At that pace, 100 per dollar could arrive within six months, a level the RBI would likely fight hard.

For savers, exporters win and importers lose. For everyone else, watch fuel and food prices.