The US and Iran have been locked in war for about seven months. On Thursday, President Trump warned Iran would be hit “very hard” if linked to the flydubai cockpit attack. Here is where things stand.

First, diplomacy is stalling. Iranian officials said they received a US reply to Tehran’s latest peace proposal, which Trump had rejected days earlier. In a Time magazine interview, Trump said he will not accept any Iranian proposal he “wouldn’t have approved a year ago” and left open the option of resuming bombing after the US election on November 3.

Second, the trigger is contested. Israeli security officials told Reuters they have found no evidence of Iranian involvement in the cockpit attack so far, and their initial view is that the co-pilot acted alone. Wartime claims need independent proof.

Third, the stakes reach India too. Oil prices are hovering near $100 a barrel amid the tensions, and any escalation could shake energy markets further, pushing up fuel and import costs.

What next: investigators in the UAE continue probing the co-pilot’s motive, while Washington’s reply to Tehran’s proposal sits unanswered in public.