The India Meteorological Department has forecast below-normal rainfall across most of India in October 2026. The country’s monthly rainfall is likely to stay below 85 per cent of the long-period average. Some parts of northwest India, southern peninsular India and isolated eastern areas may get normal to above-normal rain.

For the October to December period, the IMD expects normal rainfall over south peninsular India. The range is 88 to 112 per cent of the average. The forecast covers Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka.

Maximum temperatures are likely to stay above normal across most of the country in October. Minimum temperatures are also expected above normal in most regions. The northeast may see near-normal maximum temperatures and normal to below-normal minimums.

The outlook follows a weak monsoon season. India recorded its fourth-lowest seasonal rainfall since 2001. The northeast logged its driest monsoon in 125 years.

The IMD has also predicted light to moderate rain over the western Himalayas and parts of central India in the first week of October.