A strengthening El Nino is raising concerns for India’s monsoon and farm output, with forecasters warning of heat and uneven rainfall in the months ahead.

Some reports have cited a monsoon deficit of around 15 per cent in scenarios linked to a strong event, though forecasts vary and the picture is still evolving. The UN has warned that El Nino is yet to peak, bringing heat and agricultural damage in its wake.

For India, a strong El Nino can mean weaker rains, pressure on reservoirs and risks to crops. Sugar output for 2026-27 is among the sectors analysts are watching, with trade reports flagging possible impacts.

The Wall Street Journal reported the UN’s warning that the climate pattern’s effects will intensify before fading. Governments across Asia are being urged to prepare contingency plans.

Meteorologists stress that El Nino is a forecast, not a certainty for every region. But with food prices already sensitive, policymakers are keeping a close watch.