The World Meteorological Organization has warned that the unfolding El Nino could be the strongest since at least 1950, with a near-100 per cent chance it will persist until February 2027.

The UN body said sea-surface temperature anomalies in the key Pacific region reached 3.7 degrees Celsius for October to December, shattering the previous record of 2.6 degrees set between November 2015 and January 2016. The event is expected to peak in December.

WMO chief Celeste Saulo said governments must prepare for cascading effects, from crop failures to flooding, as the phenomenon interacts with the long-term warming trend.

Research from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab projects up to 451,000 excess deaths between June 2026 and February 2027 linked to heat and related stresses under the current trajectory.

For India, the timing is worrying. The 2026 southwest monsoon has already ended 12.6 per cent below normal, the weakest since 2015, and reservoirs sit at their lowest levels in a decade. A strong El Nino through the winter and spring could further stress water and food systems.