The World Meteorological Organization has warned that a strengthening El Nino could bring drought, water stress and food-security risks to southern Africa in the coming months.

In an update published on October 1, the agency said the October-December 2026 and January-March 2027 outlook points to drier conditions in South Africa, southern and central Mozambique, and south-western Madagascar.

The forecast was prepared by the South-West Indian Ocean Climate Outlook Forum, hosted by the Seychelles Meteorological Agency in mid-September. Temperatures are expected to stay above normal across the region.

South Africa’s Cabinet has already received a report on the potential impact of El Nino. The agency says drought and heat may cut farm output, strain water supplies and hurt livelihoods.

Mozambique is ranked among Africa’s most vulnerable countries to the event. Aid partners are already funding drought-resilient seeds and water projects in its Tete province. What happens next depends on how the rainy season unfolds.