The southwest monsoon’s withdrawal has stalled over central and eastern India, while winds over the south peninsula are turning easterly, hinting at an early build-up to the northeast monsoon, according to weather watchers.

The monsoon’s retreat from northwest India was completed in late September, but the withdrawal line has not advanced further east since. Meanwhile, easterly winds strengthening over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka suggest the transition to northeast monsoon conditions is beginning. The normal onset date is around October 15.

Forecasters are watching a possible cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal around October 14. If it forms, it could bring heavy rain to Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and parts of Kerala. Southern Karnataka is also likely to see wet weather through next week.

The northeast monsoon is the main rainy season for Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Kerala, contributing a significant share of their annual rainfall. A timely onset would help reservoirs and winter crops after the long southwest monsoon season. The India Meteorological Department is expected to announce the official onset date soon.