Peru’s Humboldt penguins are vanishing, with the Punta San Juan colony falling from 3,000 birds in 2012 to fewer than 500 in 2025, researchers say.

The crash follows the 2022-23 avian flu outbreak, which killed seabirds across South America, and repeated El Nino events that scattered the fish penguins feed on.

Now scientists warn a new threat is building. The US weather agency NOAA says there is a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong El Nino, with some researchers warning of a possible “super” El Nino.

Warmer waters push anchovies deeper or further offshore, forcing penguins to swim farther for food. Chicks starve when parents cannot return with enough fish.

Conservationists say the colony, one of the largest Humboldt penguin breeding sites, could face local extinction without rapid protection of feeding grounds.

Humboldt penguins are listed as vulnerable, with breeding colonies concentrated in Peru and Chile. The Punta San Juan reserve is managed as a protected guano island where seabirds have nested for centuries.