India's southwest monsoon has ended with 759.4 mm of rainfall, just 87 per cent of the long-period average. It is the fourth-lowest monsoon since 2001 and the 13th lowest since records began in 1901. It is also the first deficient monsoon since 2015.

The regional picture is stark. The Northeast recorded 1,017.1 mm, its driest monsoon since 1901. June delivered only 65 per cent of normal rain, July recovered to 101 per cent, but August and September fell short at 84 and 92 per cent.

The IMD has attributed the shortfall to El Nino conditions in the Pacific, which typically suppress Indian rainfall. The department has forecast below-normal rainfall for October as well.

A weak monsoon raises concerns for winter crops and reservoir levels. Agriculture experts say sowing of rabi crops could be affected in rain-dependent regions, and water managers are watching storage levels closely. Policymakers will watch food prices closely in the months ahead.