India has recorded its fourth-lowest monsoon rainfall since 2001, the India Meteorological Department’s data shows. The June-to-September season stayed below normal mainly because of shortfalls in June, August and September, despite good rain in July.

The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall for October as well, with the month’s total likely under 85 per cent of the long-period average. Maximum temperatures are expected to stay above normal across most of the country during the month.

There is some relief in the longer outlook. For October to December, the IMD expects normal rainfall, between 88 and 112 per cent of average, over south peninsular India, including Tamil Nadu, Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh and south interior Karnataka.

The monsoon is now withdrawing from the north. It is expected to exit Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh within days. Heavy rain is forecast in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand from October 5 to 7, and a low-pressure area may form over the Andaman Sea around October 13.