Major Wall Street banks have raised their oil price forecasts, with a Wall Street Journal survey putting Brent at $90.22 a barrel in the fourth quarter — sharply above earlier estimates.

The survey, covering Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, sees WTI at $85.47 in Q4, up from previous forecasts of $74.62.

Brent traded around $98.79 on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs warned Brent could top $120 if Gulf production and exports stay significantly constrained, while HSBC raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $90.

The trigger: stalled efforts to end the Iran war. Despite some recovery in Persian Gulf crude exports, the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, keeping supply-shock risk high.

Bank of America put Brent at $83 for the second half of 2026, warning that more disruptions could push prices toward $120 a barrel.

For consumers, the forecasts spell continued pain at the pump — and for central banks, another inflation headache heading into winter.