A Foreign Affairs analysis argues that cheap drones and missiles are changing modern warfare, and Iran’s campaign against the United States and Israel is the proof. The concept is called “precise mass.” Tehran spent decades preparing for a crushing air campaign. It built up vast arsenals of high-volume, low-cost, precision-guided weapons instead of expensive platforms.

The economics are lopsided. Intercepting a roughly $35,000 Shahed-136 drone with a $4 million missile is unsustainable over time, the analysis notes. Advanced militaries are structurally built around small numbers of exquisite systems like Patriots and F-35s.

Iran has adapted quickly, targeting air defenses, radars, and command nodes rather than competing symmetrically. The analysis says modern adversaries do not need to defeat NATO conventionally. They can stress it through tempo, geography, and exhausted interceptor magazines.

In just 16 days of fighting, the United States reportedly exhausted about 40 percent of its THAAD interceptor stockpile. Each interceptor costs about $15.5 million. The prescription is a “high-low mix”: cheaper, mass-produced munitions built in volume.

In war, the lesson is clear: mass matters, and million-dollar interceptors cannot keep shooting down thousand-dollar drones.