Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has won the first round of Brazil’s presidential election. With nearly all votes counted on Sunday, the 45-year-old led incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva 47.2 percent to 44.9 percent.

The result defied almost every major poll. Most surveys had given the 80-year-old Lula a single-digit lead. On the eve of the vote, Datafolha put Bolsonaro at 42 percent against 45 percent for Lula.

Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro, fell short of the 50 percent needed for an outright win. He will now face Lula in a runoff election on October 25.

Bolsonaro dominated his strongholds in the south. In Sao Paulo, the country’s largest state, he led 52 percent to 38 percent. In bellwether Minas Gerais, he led 50 percent to 43 percent. In Rio de Janeiro, his margin was 53 percent to 39 percent.

Conservatives also won big in concurrent congressional and state elections. The campaign was one of the most vicious in Brazil’s democratic history. Neither candidate attended the televised debates.

The result continues a run of wins for right-wing candidates across Latin America.