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Fed minutes show officials divided over further rate hikes this year

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting show officials divided over whether to raise interest rates again. The September 15-16 meeting ended with a unanimous 25-basis-point hike to a range of 3.75 to 4 per cent. The minutes were released on October 7.

“Most” officials said another hike was likely before the end of the year. But they disagreed on the reason. Some pointed to energy price shocks. Others said it was about managing risk. A third group focused on where the neutral rate sits.

Markets expect the Fed to hold rates at the October 27-28 meeting. They are pricing in another hike at the December 8-9 meeting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has not committed to either move.

The debate matters for global markets. Higher US rates would push the dollar up and pressure other currencies. Europe’s markets fell on Thursday partly because investors fear more hikes are coming. The minutes added to that anxiety.

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