A Foreign Affairs analysis says Beijing is playing a long game on Taiwan. Analyst Bonnie Glaser argues that China is waiting for U.S. commitments to weaken on their own rather than rushing to use force.

The argument lands at a delicate moment. President Xi Jinping visited Washington from September 23 to 25 for a summit with President Donald Trump. Xi pressed Trump to state publicly that the United States opposes Taiwan independence, according to Beijing’s account of the meeting.

Taiwan’s government rejected that demand on September 25. Its foreign ministry said China was “distorting facts” and that only Taiwan’s people can decide the island’s future. It blamed Beijing’s military pressure for raising tensions in the region.

Two issues dominated the summit talks. The first was Trump’s stance on Taiwan independence. The second was a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan, which Beijing wants cancelled.

The analysis warns that Beijing’s strategy is to shift U.S. Taiwan policy gradually in language and practice. U.S. intelligence has long assessed that Xi ordered the military to be capable of action against Taiwan by the PLA’s 2027 centenary.