Brent crude futures climbed 81 cents to $103.06 a barrel on Monday, with WTI at $91.57. The trigger was Yemen’s Houthis claiming ballistic missile and drone strikes on Saudi Aramco sites in Riyadh and the Khurais area.

The Houthis said the strikes caused large fires and were retaliation against Saudi-backed military actions in Yemen. Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm the claim. Markets price risk, not confirmed damage, so even the claim moves prices.

The backdrop is tight supply. Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said global oil stockpiles are ‘scarily thin’ and could take two years to rebuild. Middle East crude exports have only just rebounded to about 98 per cent of pre-war levels.

Shipping adds to the premium. Freight rates through the war zone are at records, raising the cost of moving crude out of the region.

Relief levers exist. The G7 will release 100 million barrels of emergency stocks over four months. Aramco also slashed November prices for Asian buyers to a six-year low. OPEC+ kept November output targets steady.