The Reserve Bank of India’s September 2026 bulletin says the Indian economy remains resilient despite a more challenging global environment — but warns that risks are mounting.

The headline numbers are strong. Real GDP grew 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2026-27. Consumer inflation stood at 4.8 per cent in August. Foreign exchange reserves hit a record $765.9 billion as of 18 September, giving the country a large buffer against external shocks.

So what are the risks? The bulletin points to escalating geopolitical tensions, elevated crude oil prices and rising global bond yields. The West Asia conflict has pushed up oil prices, raising fears of supply-chain disruptions and renewed inflation.

The bulletin also notes that Indian equity markets stayed subdued through August and September, with foreign portfolio investors turning net sellers. Food prices rose sequentially through September, including rice, wheat, pulses and edible oils.

On the positive side, credit growth held up, private investment showed signs of strengthening, and the current account deficit stayed moderate, cushioned by services exports and remittances.

The takeaway: strong domestic fundamentals are cushioning India against global volatility — but oil, geopolitics and weather remain the key things to watch.