The Norwegian Nobel Committee will announce the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner on Friday, October 9, at 2:30 pm IST in Oslo.

A total of 287 nominations were submitted this year, including 208 individuals and 79 organisations. The committee keeps nominations secret for 50 years, so there is no official shortlist.

Prediction markets put Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms in the lead. Polymarket has taken $26.5 million on the question, with the volunteer network at about 15 per cent. Bookmakers list them at 3/1 odds.

The Emergency Response Rooms are community-led volunteer networks providing aid during Sudan's war. They won the Rafto Prize and a Right Livelihood Award in 2025.

The Peace Research Institute Oslo's annual shortlist also names Ukrainian children's rights advocate Mykola Kuleba with Save the Children, the Committee to Protect Journalists, the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court, and the International Space Station.

Other names in the betting include Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Yulia Navalnaya, UNRWA, Pope Leo XIV and Donald Trump. Last year's prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who was not among the favourites. The announcement will be streamed live from Oslo.