A supertanker caught fire near the Strait of Hormuz on October 1 after what Iran’s Fars news agency called an “unauthorized route” transit. Here is what we know so far.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency confirmed an incident about 8 km off the Omani coast. The vessel, with capacity of around 2.5 million barrels, suffered a fire. Iran’s 45-day deadline for resolving its standoff with the West expired the same day.

The incident follows a series of attacks on commercial shipping in the strait this week. Oil prices have risen above $102 a barrel as markets price in disruption risk.

President Trump could escalate after the November 3 midterms, analysts say. The Wall Street Journal reports the US is sending a third aircraft carrier group plus 9,000 to 10,000 troops to the region by the end of November.

What happens next depends on whether Tehran and Washington find an off-ramp. Shippers are rerouting where possible, but Hormuz carries a fifth of the world’s oil. This tracker will be updated as the situation develops.