India’s 2026 monsoon ended 12.6 percent below average, the fourth-lowest since 2001. Here is how the weak rains travel from farms to your food bills.

The monsoon waters nearly half of India’s farmland that lacks irrigation. Kharif acreage fell 1.2 percent to 110.8 million hectares, with paddy planting down 16.32 lakh hectares. The USDA has cut India’s rice estimate to 147 million tonnes from 154 million tonnes. Pulses, edible oils and cotton face the sharpest price exposure.

Rice may hold steadier because government buffer stocks can cushion the shortfall. But festival season demand for sugar, rice, oils and sweets is rising, and the government has allowed duty-free imports of one million tonnes of raw sugar after domestic prices jumped.

Economists warn food inflation could push overall inflation toward 5.5 percent if the pressure builds. October is also forecast drier than normal, so the next watchpoint is the rabi sowing season and whether winter rains arrive on time.