The finance ministry expects India’s economy to grow 7.3 per cent in the July-September quarter of FY27, after a strong 7.8 per cent in the June quarter. Here is what the forecast means.

The figure comes from the ministry’s Monthly Economic Review for September and its ‘nowcasting’ model, introduced in this year’s Economic Survey. It tracks high-frequency indicators: e-way bills and manufacturing have cooled slightly, while services strengthened in August on new business and hiring.

The review warns against complacency. Oil prices, tighter global financial conditions and US trade uncertainty threaten momentum. Its message to policymakers: India must become ‘competition-friendly’, not just ‘business-friendly’, through better governance and state capacity.

The 7.3 per cent call sits above most private forecasts but below the 7.8 per cent first-quarter print, which was the highest Q1 growth in the current series. Foreign investors have turned cautious on Indian equities amid rising global bond yields and tariff pressures. The ministry hopes that as global clouds clear, India’s growth story will win them back.