A fresh weather system is likely to develop over the Bay of Bengal in the second week of October, the India Meteorological Department’s extended-range outlook says.

An upper-air cyclonic circulation is expected over the North Andaman Sea around October 12. Under its influence, a low-pressure area may form over the Andaman Sea around October 13.

The IMD puts the probability of the system intensifying into a depression over the central and adjoining south Bay of Bengal around October 15 at 1 to 33 percent, describing it as low for now.

The track and intensity will become clearer as the system develops. At this stage there is no indication of a cyclone or a specific landfall.

Odisha is watching closely. The possible development comes ahead of Durga Puja, which begins in the state on October 16, and while Bhadrak district still battles flooding from an earlier system.

Disaster management authorities say it is too early for alarms, but the forecast window bears watching through the weekend.