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RBI likely to raise rates to 5.50% in October, poll says

The Reserve Bank of India is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% at its October 5-7 meeting, as inflation broadens, a Reuters poll found.

Consumer inflation rose to 4.82% in August, and economists say price pressures are spreading beyond food. The IANS survey also found rising odds of a hike at the October meeting.

A rate increase would lift borrowing costs for loans and mortgages. The RBI last moved rates when inflation was running closer to its 4% target.

The central bank has been balancing growth against price stability. Stronger-than-expected demand and sticky services inflation have tipped the balance towards tightening. The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee meets every two months to set the repo rate. A 25-basis-point move would signal the bank sees inflation running above its comfort zone.

What happens next: the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision in early October will set the tone for credit markets through the festive season.

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