India’s economy is expected to grow 7.3 per cent in the second quarter of FY27, the Finance Ministry said in its Monthly Economic Review for September, released on October 1. The estimate is based on the ministry’s internal nowcasting model.

The review said growth momentum has extended into the second quarter, though at a more measured pace. The economy grew 7.8 per cent in the first quarter, the highest first-quarter growth in the current data series.

The ministry’s 7.3 per cent projection is well above the Reserve Bank of India’s estimate of 6.4 per cent for the same quarter. The RBI expects full-year growth of 6.7 per cent.

The review flagged higher oil prices, tighter global financial conditions and trade uncertainty with the United States as risks to sustaining momentum. It cautioned that India cannot take its growth performance for granted.

On the positive side, manufacturing grew 9.2 per cent and services 10 per cent in the first quarter. Combined goods and services exports touched 399.3 billion dollars in April-August, up 15.5 per cent from a year earlier.