India best placed to fill China-sized hole in fuel exports

India may be best placed to fill a China-sized hole in global fuel exports after Beijing suspended fuel exports for October, according to a Reuters analysis. The move has raised fresh fears of tightening in world fuel markets.India has the world's fourth-largest refinery system, with 23 refineries able to process about 5.6 million barrels of crude a day. It is also a consistently larger fuel exporter than China. India's combined diesel, gasoline and jet fuel shipments hit about 47 million metric tonnes in 2025, compared with China's 25.4 million tonnes, Kpler data showed.However, India's fuel exports over the first nine months of 2026 fell about 23 per cent, or nearly 8 million tonnes, from a year earlier. The US-Israeli war on Iran has cut Middle Eastern oil supplies since late February, and India earlier raised duties on fuel exports to protect domestic supply.The outlook is now improving after two consecutive cuts to fuel-export taxes, alongside a rebound in crude imports. Refiners say the easing makes it more attractive to send more fuel to export markets. How long China keeps its suspension in place will decide how much of the gap India can fill.
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