Antarctica will lose more ice than it gains this century, even if the world limits warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

That is the finding of a new study in Nature Geoscience by researchers Yucheng Lin and Robert Kopp, published on September 30. Extra snowfall from a warmer atmosphere will not be enough to offset the loss.

The team trained a physics-informed machine learning model on hundreds of thousands of ice-sheet simulations. They kept only the scenarios that match satellite gravity data collected since 2002.

In a very-high-emissions scenario, Antarctica alone could add up to 25 centimetres of sea-level rise by 2100. That is enough to permanently flood the homes of more than 10 million people.

The authors say every tonne of greenhouse gas avoided today reduces how much ice is lost, and the benefit lasts for hundreds of years.

Antarctica holds enough ice to raise global sea level by about 58 metres if it all melted.