The EU’s new ambassador says Australia will be $10 billion a year worse off if parliament rejects a landmark free trade pact. Here is what the deal is and why its fate is uncertain.

The agreement, unveiled in March during European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s visit, would open European markets to Australian farm exports. Ambassador Lawrence Meredith says Australia won an eightfold increase in beef access and a fivefold increase in lamb access.

Critics are not convinced. Meat and Livestock Australia called it the ‘worst ever’ FTA, pointing out Australia’s sheep meat quota of about 25,000 tonnes against New Zealand’s 163,769 tonnes. The Coalition plans to vote against it, warning it could bind Australia to climate action and expose it to European sanctions.

Because the deal has no investor-state dispute clause, the government could strike an unusual deal with the Greens to pass it. Meredith hopes it takes effect early next year, arguing that in troubled geopolitical times, close partners must invest in each other.