India’s 2026 southwest monsoon ended with 759.4 mm of rainfall, just 87 percent of the long-period average, making it the fourth-lowest monsoon since 2001 and the 13th-lowest since 1901, the India Meteorological Department has confirmed.

The season was uneven. June received only 65 percent of its average rainfall, July recovered to 101 percent, August slipped to 84 percent and September reached 92 percent. Of 36 meteorological subdivisions, 18 got normal rain and 17 were deficient. Odisha was the only subdivision with excess rainfall.

The shortfall has hit farm output. Kharif acreage fell 1.2 percent to 110.8 million hectares, with paddy planting down 16.32 lakh hectares. The US Department of Agriculture has cut India’s rice estimate to 147 million tonnes from 154 million tonnes last season.

October is expected to stay drier than normal at below 85 percent of average rainfall, with above-normal temperatures across most of the country. The IMD forecasts normal rainfall only over south peninsular India during October to December.