A new Reuters/Ipsos poll has Democrats feeling confident ahead of the November 3 midterms. Here is what the numbers actually say.

The six-day survey of 4,506 US adults, completed on Monday, found 48 percent of Kamala Harris’s 2024 voters are “very enthusiastic” about voting. Only 30 percent of Donald Trump voters said the same.

Men have become more enthusiastic and are shifting toward the Democrats. The party remains favored to win back the House majority.

The poll lands as Trump’s approval sits at a record low of 32 percent. Among Hispanic voters, just 24 percent approve of him, while 52 percent plan to vote Democratic.

Enthusiasm gaps do not guarantee results — turnout operations and late swings matter. But with a month to go, the energy is clearly on the Democrats’ side.

Republicans argue polls underestimated Trump voters before and could do so again. They point to 2016 and 2020 as proof that enthusiasm surveys can mislead.

Still, special elections this year have mostly favored Democrats. The party is recruiting heavily and outspending Republicans in key House races.