The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee announces its October decision today, and most economists expect a 25-basis-point hike to 5.50 per cent. Here is why. Inflation accelerated to 4.82 per cent in August, staying above the RBI's 4 per cent target for the third straight month. More importantly, price rises have broadened: nearly half of India's inflation basket rose 4 per cent or more year-on-year, up from about a third in March. Crude prices are elevated, global central banks are turning hawkish, and the rupee is near record lows around 96.4 to the dollar. The economy gives the RBI room to act: GDP grew nearly 8 per cent in the April-June quarter. The repo rate has been at 5.25 per cent for ten months after 125 basis points of cuts in 2025. A 25-basis-point move would be the first hike since February 2023. Markets have largely priced it in. The real signal will be the RBI's stance and Governor Sanjay Malhotra's guidance on whether more hikes will follow.