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IMD’s October Weather Outlook for India, Explained

India recorded 759.4 mm of rain in the 2026 southwest monsoon season, just 87 per cent of the Long Period Average, the fourth-lowest seasonal total since 2001, the IMD said.

Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, 18 got normal rain, 17 were deficient, and only Odisha saw excess. June was the weakest month at 65 per cent of LPA, while July hit 101 per cent before rainfall slipped again.

What the IMD expects for October: below-normal rainfall across most of India, likely under 85 per cent of LPA. Northwest India, the southern peninsula and parts of the east may get normal to above-normal rain.

For October to December, south peninsular India should see normal rainfall between 88 and 112 per cent of LPA. The rest of the country faces a warmer October, with above-normal maximum temperatures and mostly above-normal minimums.

The outlook signals a dry, hot October for much of India, with the south getting its usual northeast monsoon relief.

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