Brazilians vote on Sunday in one of the most consequential elections in the country’s recent history. Here is what you need to know.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 80, is seeking a fourth term. His challenger is Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is in prison after being sentenced to 27 years over a failed 2023 coup attempt.

Polls show a tight race. An AtlasIntel survey for Bloomberg put Lula at 45.3 percent and Flavio Bolsonaro at 42.2 percent in first-round voting intentions. A Quaest poll gave Lula 39 percent against 34 percent.

If no candidate wins more than half of valid votes, a runoff between the top two will be held on October 25.

The regional split is sharp. Lula leads 56 to 24 in the Northeast, while Bolsonaro leads 41 to 27 in the South.

The economy dominates the campaign. Nearly half of Brazilians say it has worsened in the past year. Bolsonaro has focused on supermarket prices, while Lula’s team disputes his claims.

Why it matters: the result will shape Brazil’s democracy, its economy and Latin America’s political direction for years.