The United States and Iran are locked in their most dangerous confrontation in months. Here is where things stand.

The US is sending the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the USS Makin Island amphibious group to the Middle East with about 9,000 personnel. That could put three American carriers in the region as President Donald Trump weighs new strikes on Iran.

Economically, Tehran is under maximum pressure. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Iran loaded zero crude onto tankers in September under Operation Economic Outcast, down from 220,000-plus barrels a day in August.

Trump has linked Iran to a co-pilot who tried to crash an Israel-bound flight on Wednesday, saying “they’ll be hit, very hard” if the connection is confirmed. Pakistan’s military spokesperson, meanwhile, called India a “terrorist state” and warned of a painful response to any provocation.

With midterms approaching in November, oil markets are already reacting. What happens next depends on whether the naval buildup stays a deterrent.