India’s 2026 southwest monsoon ended with a 13 percent rainfall deficit, the weakest season since 2015. The country received 759 mm of rain against a normal of 868.6 mm.

Seventeen subdivisions covering 42 percent of the area recorded deficient rainfall. Drought conditions were reported in Karnataka, Maharashtra, parts of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Rajasthan, affecting about 6.11 lakh hectares of cropped area.

Paddy acreage fell by 16.32 lakh hectares, though farmers shifted to crops like pearl millet, sorghum and sunflower that need less water. A central team visits Karnataka on October 3 to assess the drought.

El Niño, which strengthened from weak to moderate in July, is seen as the main cause. The IMD expects it to intensify further and has forecast below-normal rain for the October-December period.

What it means: rabi sowing of wheat, mustard and chana could suffer from low soil moisture, and food inflation — already 5.95 percent in August — could stay elevated into winter, hurting farm incomes and rural demand.