Tom Cruise’s new film Digger opens tomorrow, October 2 — and the box-office outlook has collapsed. The Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu satire, in which Cruise plays a billionaire oil baron racing to save the world from a disaster he created, is now tracking to open at just $8-12 million, according to Page Six, down from $12-15 million (Variety) and an initial $30 million.

The slide has been steady: Box Office Theory had it at $20-29 million, then NRG tracking fell to $19 million. Reviews have not helped — the film sits around 53% on Rotten Tomatoes, and Warner Bros has leaned into the bad press with a “decide for yourself” promo video on X. It is Cruise’s first non-franchise film in nine years.

The stakes are high. The film was greenlit at $125 million but reportedly cost $160-180 million after overruns — which Warner Bros disputes — plus roughly $100 million in marketing. Warner Bros says the film breaks even at $300 million globally; rival estimates put it closer to $350 million. Rival Verity, also opening October 2, is tracking a healthier $24-34 million.