The southwest monsoon is withdrawing from India, and the India Meteorological Department says conditions are now favourable for its further retreat over the coming week.

Withdrawal means the seasonal rain-bearing system is pulling back from north and central India, typically completing by mid-October. But the retreat is not a clean switch-off: the IMD is forecasting a final burst of activity, with isolated heavy rain over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal for three days, south interior Karnataka for four days, and Kerala and Mahe for four days.

A residual low over east Uttar Pradesh is weakening as the withdrawal accelerates, and the wind regime over the Arabian Sea shifts to easterlies around October 7 — a classic marker of the season’s change.

What it means: northern India will see temperatures rise from October 1 (Delhi’s maximum is forecast at 33-35 degrees), while the southern peninsula gets one more week of showers.

The withdrawal timing matters for rabi sowing and reservoir levels, which will shape the winter crop season.