The era of the budget smartphone may be ending. Shipments of phones priced under $200 could fall about 40% between 2025 and 2030, according to a Counterpoint Research forecast analysed by TechRadar.

That means roughly 230 million fewer budget devices a year by the end of the decade, a shift driven by soaring memory prices.

AI data centres are consuming huge amounts of DRAM and NAND flash. High-bandwidth memory now accounts for about 23% of DRAM wafer output, pushing up prices for the chips that go into cheap phones.

The effects are already visible. Xiaomi's Redmi A7 launched in April 2026 at about $110, nearly 40% more than its predecessor. The Realme C71's price in India rose about 70% in a year.

Nothing has cancelled its budget CMF Phone 3 Pro line, signalling that even brands built on value are struggling to make the numbers work.

Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang warned the trend threatens digital inclusion, as billions of first-time users depend on affordable phones to get online.

Manufacturers are responding by cutting specs or raising prices, leaving buyers in emerging markets with fewer choices.