Election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Monday shifted 11 House races toward Democrats, in a sign of the party’s growing momentum ahead of the midterms.

In Virginia, Jen Kiggans’s seat moved from toss-up to leans Democratic and Rob Wittman’s from leans Republican to toss-up. In Pennsylvania, Ryan McKenzie’s race shifted from toss-up to leans Democratic, while in California Derek Tran moved from leans to likely Democratic.

The changes reflect Democratic overperformance in recent special elections and polling, though forecasters cautioned that the national environment can shift quickly in the final weeks.

Control of the House will be decided by a few dozen competitive seats, making each rating change significant for both parties’ strategies. Seven other races also moved in Democrats’ favour in the latest update. Forecasters stressed that ratings are snapshots, not predictions, and that fundraising, candidate quality and late-breaking events can still move individual races. Both parties’ campaign committees said the update validated their investment strategies in the battleground seats.