Former Guinea-Bissau president Umaro Sissoco Embalo has announced plans to return home and contest the presidential election scheduled for December 6, setting up a dramatic comeback after nearly a year abroad.

Embalo, who was ousted in November 2025, told supporters he would return to Guinea-Bissau in early October to prepare his candidacy. His announcement has injected new uncertainty into the country’s already fragile political transition.

Guinea-Bissau, a West African nation with a long history of coups and political instability, has been under transitional arrangements since Embalo’s removal. Regional blocs and international observers have pressed for a peaceful, credible vote.

It remains unclear whether electoral authorities will clear his candidacy or how rival factions will respond to his return. Political analysts say his comeback bid could either stabilise or further polarise the race, depending on how the transition handles his eligibility.

Regional bloc ECOWAS has historically played a stabilising role in Guinea-Bissau’s crises, deploying troops after the 2025 upheaval. Diplomats say a credible December vote will depend on an inclusive candidate list and security arrangements that allow campaigning across the country without intimidation.