Democratic Texas state Representative James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in a hypothetical 2026 general-election match-up for the US Senate, according to a newly released Texas poll.

The survey tested likely voters on the potential head-to-head contest and showed Talarico ahead of Paxton, a result Democrats described as “incredible” for a Democratic candidate in a state Republicans have long dominated.

The poll lands as Texas Democrats search for a strong challenger to take on Paxton, one of the most prominent Republicans in the state, who is weighing a run for the Senate seat.

Republicans have won every Texas Senate race for decades, and strategists on both sides caution that early polling in a contest that has yet to take shape can shift dramatically once campaigning begins.

Talarico, a rising figure in the Texas House known for his plain-spoken style, has not announced a Senate bid, and Paxton has not formally entered the race. Both parties are watching closely to see who ultimately throws in.