The US Federal Reserve’s latest minutes show a central bank divided on its next move. Officials unanimously raised rates by 25 basis points in September to 3.75-4 per cent. But they could not agree on whether more hikes are needed.

“Most” officials said another hike was likely by December. But they split on the why. Some blame energy shocks from oil at $100. Others call it risk management. A third group argues about where the neutral rate sits.

What does this mean for you? If the Fed hikes again, the dollar strengthens. That makes oil and gold costlier in rupees. It also pushes global borrowing costs up. Indian markets fell on October 8 partly on fears of more US hikes.

Markets currently expect no hike at the October 27-28 meeting. They see a possible hike on December 8-9. Watch the US inflation data between now and then. That will decide which side of the Fed’s divide wins.