India’s retail inflation likely rose to 5.40 per cent in September from 4.82 per cent in August, according to the median forecast in a Reuters poll of 41 economists conducted from October 5 to 7.

Forecasts ranged from 4.90 to 5.90 per cent. If realised, it would be the fourth straight month above the RBI’s 4 per cent medium-term target and the highest reading this year.

Economists blamed higher energy costs and food prices. Brent crude has crossed 100 dollars a barrel, while a deficient monsoon has pushed up food costs. Food and drinks make up about 40 per cent of the consumer price index basket.

Core inflation was seen at 4.3 per cent, while wholesale price inflation was expected at 10.18 per cent. The RBI raised the repo rate to 5.50 per cent on Wednesday, citing inflation risks. The official data is due on October 14.

The poll’s forecasts ranged from 4.90 to 5.90 per cent, with economists split on how fast prices would cool. Core inflation was seen at 4.3 per cent, while wholesale price inflation was expected at 10.18 per cent.