Most Federal Reserve officials believe another interest rate increase is likely before the end of 2026. The minutes of the September 15-16 meeting were released on October 7.

The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points in September to a range of 3.75 to 4.00 per cent. It was the first increase since 2023. The decision was unanimous.

Officials said higher rates would help bring inflation back to the 2 per cent target. They described the labour market as near full employment. But they saw inflation risks tilted to the upside.

Markets now see only a 19 to 22 per cent chance of a hike at the October meeting. They price about an 80 per cent chance of a rise in December. New York Fed President John Williams said he expects one more increase, likely in December.

The minutes also flagged AI spending as a surprise factor. Officials said the size of the AI investment boom had continued to surprise them. The next meeting comes in late October.