India’s 2026 southwest monsoon ended as the weakest in more than a decade, with rainfall 12.6% below the long-term average.

The country received 759.4 mm of rain between June and September, against the normal 868.6 mm, the India Meteorological Department said. The shortfall crosses the threshold that defines an all-India drought year.

A strengthening El Nino in the Pacific was the main cause. East and northeast India were hit hardest with a 26% deficit. The south peninsula saw 24% below normal, while northwest India had a 6% deficit and central India just 3%.

Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, 17 saw deficient rainfall and 18 were normal. Odisha was the only region with excess rain.

What it means: weaker rains threaten crop yields and could push food prices higher. The agriculture ministry has intensified monitoring of water resources. Maharashtra has already ordered a 10% water cut from October 16.

The deficit built up through the season. August ended 7% below normal and September 8% below normal, extending the shortfall into the final months. A weak monsoon also means less water in reservoirs heading into the dry season.