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Markets Bet the RBI Will Raise Rates on Wednesday

Markets are betting the Reserve Bank of India will raise interest rates on Wednesday as inflation pressure builds. A Reuters poll found 35 of 61 economists expect the RBI to hike its repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent at the policy meeting concluding October 7.

Consumer inflation jumped to 4.82 percent in August, well above the RBI’s comfort zone, even as the economy grew a strong 7.8 percent in the April-June quarter. Food and fuel prices have kept rising, and a weak rupee makes imported goods costlier, adding to the squeeze on households.

The policy review began on October 6 with Governor Sanjay Malhotra chairing the Monetary Policy Committee. A hike would be the central bank’s latest move to cool prices, but it would also raise borrowing costs for home and car loans. With growth still robust, economists say the RBI has room to act against inflation without derailing the economy. The decision will be watched closely by bond and currency markets.

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