A strengthening El Nino is the key driver of India’s erratic 2026 weather, and scientists warn it could intensify into a rare ‘super’ event peaking between late 2026 and early 2027.

El Nino is the unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It disrupts weather patterns worldwide. A ‘super’ El Nino means sea surface temperature anomalies above 2 degrees Celsius. Such events are rare; the last strong ones were in 2015-16, 1997-98 and 1982-83.

For India, a stronger El Nino raises the risk of below-normal monsoon rain in July to September, stress in rain-fed farm regions, and pressure on hydropower and the electricity grid. The IMD has forecast below-normal October rainfall as well.

But El Nino does not guarantee drought. Of the 16 El Nino years since 1950, only seven brought below-normal Indian monsoons. The Indian Ocean, wind patterns and Himalayan snow cover also matter.

Strong El Nino events usually peak around year-end and fade before the next monsoon. Scientists say this one needs close watching through 2027.